Big Gs Forecast Model gets a Make-Over
been a busy few months since we last got in touch and nearly all of
that time has been focused on the forecast model. We've built in
refraction models (for swells that bend around Southern Ireland),
developed refinements to detect weak, long distance swells (notoriously
hard to forecast), and sweated blood to get a reliable wind forecast.
What does this all mean? The
forecast is now very refined and we're confident enough in
the accuracy that we express it as a single number or tight range.
Not an ambiguous scale that can span three feet or more, but a
definitive view on what the dominant size will be.
This really, really matters for UK
conditions because we live in a nation of borderline conditions.
Getting it right when there's a 4ft, medium range swell and
light offshore winds is easy. But those days are rare on the
changeable isle on which we live. Where you need the forecast to be
right is on the very long list of edge days we get. The days where there's a weak long distance swell that doesn't show up on most models but produces perfect, shoulder high sets. Or
where swell energy means waves travel close to wind speed so that
it's lined up, even though the wind's onshore (go figure, but we see
These are the days you don't want to miss.
The days when you might think "it's not worth it" and then later
wish you'd gone rather than spent the day buying new socks.
Equally you want to miss the days where an
overly enthusiastic forecast tells you it's going to be 2 - 3ft and you
travel to the coast to find it's barely 2ft and barely rideable.
it right for our unique conditions in the UK is essential and although
it's taken longer than we would have liked, it's been worth it to get it
to where we wanted it to be. And that place is summed up in one word,